FNUS75 KRIW 250044
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HOLE IN THE WALL FIRE...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
644 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1721 MDT ON AUGUST 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MONTANA EARLY THIS EVENING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHEAST ENTRANCE
BACK TOWARD THE NORTH ENTRANCE.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FIRE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOWS
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.

A RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE TREND WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TRENDING HIGHER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL
INCREASINGLY DOMINATE THE WIND FIELD THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
A NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH
SOUTHWEST WIND AT RIDGE TOP LEVEL.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85 TO 90 BELOW 6500 FEET.  75 TO 80 NEAR 8000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-19 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH 1000L...BECOMING
                    NORTH NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH BETWEEN 1000L AND 1200L.
                    ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...
                    PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTH (MONTANA SIDE).
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8100-9100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (53700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (111800 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF SMOKE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...SHANE DEL GROSSO
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110824.HOLEI.02/RIW