FNUS75 KRIW 251151 AAA
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HOLE IN THE WALL FIRE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
551 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1721 MDT ON AUGUST 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

UPDATED SPOT TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EARLY THIS MORNING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS YELLOWSTONE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHEAST...AND COULD EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE FIRE AREA THIS MORNING.
LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...BUT
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND SOME LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL INCREASINGLY DOMINATE
THE WIND FIELD...OTHERWISE A NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST WIND AT RIDGE TOP LEVEL.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-75 PERCENT). WIDELY
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90 BELOW 6500 FEET.  75-80 NEAR 8000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH 1000L...BECOMING
                    NORTH NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH BETWEEN 1000L AND
                    NOON. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10 TO 15 MPH. ERRATIC NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6700-7700 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (42000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (105300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...SHANE DEL GROSSO
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110824.HOLEI.02/RIW