FNUS75 KRIW 251653
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HOLE IN THE WALL...USDA SHOSHONE NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1053 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1000 MDT ON AUGUST 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING.
SURFACE DEW POINTS APPEAR TO BE REACTING TO THIS PUSH...SO MORE
MOISTURE IS MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE FIRE THAN INDICATED BY
PREVIOUS COMPUTER MODELS. THIS IS GOOD NEWS AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LESS LIKELY THAN ONCE FEARED FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...
THE INCREASED MOISTURE COULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
THAT COULD CAUSE SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION...WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED INTO THE NIGHT BY A SHORT WAVE PASSING
TO THE NORTH. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT
...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE ONCE IT HAS PASSED BUT SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HEATING
DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE.

OVERALL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND WESTERLY...SO WIND DIRECTIONS WILL
BE STEERED BY NEARBY CONVECTION AND OTHER SMALL SURFACE FEATURES LIKE
THE THERMAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...WHICH COULD INTRODUCE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
DRAINAGE DOMINANT AFTER SUNSET.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
                    NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-53 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 6-11 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 3-7 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 13 TO 18 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................3 THEN 1 AFTER 0100.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600-7600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2200-3200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH DECREASING TO 8 TO 12
                    MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (93500 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (23200
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
BECOMING WEST.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...ALLEN FARNSWORTH
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110825.HOLEI.01/RIW