FNUS75 KRIW 261759
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR WILLOW CREEK...CNTY SBL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1159 AM MDT FRI AUG 26 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1141 MDT ON AUGUST 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THE LOCATION OF THE FIRE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH MAKES IT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO PASSING SHORT WAVES THAT LIKE TO RIPPLE ALONG ITS
OUTER EDGE...LEAVING THE AREA VULNERABLE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK WITH AS
SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING FURTHER
SUPPORT FOR THE STORMS AND POSSIBLY KEEP THEM GOING INTO THE NIGHT
AGAIN. A STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING...ONCE
AGAIN PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST...TAKING ON
A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS THE WAVES PASS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC AROUND THUNDERSTORMS...MAKING THE DIRECTION HARD TO PREDICT
VERY FAR IN ADVANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GRADUALLY DECREASING TREND AS PRESSURE
LOWERS SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RH WILL BE NEARLY STEADY
WITH A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-27 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-85 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-28 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...SUBLETTE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATOR
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110826.WILLO.01/RIW