FNUS76 KSGX 261358 FWSSGX SPOT FORECAST FOR KEN...SBNF FRON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 658 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 PDT ON AUGUST 26. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... INVERSION BREAKING AROUND 0800 PDT. AIR MASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 12000 FEET...INDICATING MOST PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE IT COULD REACH THE INCIDENT ELEVATIONS. ALSO THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AFTER THEY DEVELOP. SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE DOWNDRAFTS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. BEST ESTIMATE ON WIND GUST STRENGTH IS 25 MPH AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL OF 2...LESS THAN 10 STRIKES IN A 15 MINUTE PERIOD. AFTER 1900 PDT/SUNSET...THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE. THERE IS A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT BY MID AFTERNOON ON...THE WIND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OVER OR FORM NEAR THE INCIDENT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...A COOLING TREND IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BUT MARINE LAYER NOT DEEPENING TO INCIDENT ELEVATIONS UNTIL WEDNESDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 99. MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT. WIND................ SLOPES...........USPLOPE/SOUTH 5 MPH. RIDGETOP.........SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. CHC WETTING RAIN....15 PERCENT. LAL.................1...BECOMING 2 LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0800 PDT...THEN 13000-15500 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. TIME (PDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........32 32 32 32 54 54 54 54 54 54 45 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... TRW TRW TRW TRW TRW TRW TRW TRW TEMP............74 82 88 93 95 98 98 99 98 99 97 RH..............37 30 24 22 20 19 19 20 21 21 23 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N SE SE SE S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MAX HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. WIND................ SLOPES...........SOUTH 5 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/NORTH AFTER 2000 PDT. RIDGETOP.........VARIABLE 2 TO 5 MPH. CHC WETTING RAIN....15 PERCENT...BECOMING 0 PERCENT LATE IN THE EVENING. LAL.................2...BECOMING 1 LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......12500 FT AGL...BECOMING 500 FT AGL AFTER 2000 PDT. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5 MPH. TIME (PDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........45 45 45 45 45 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....TRW TRW TEMP............95 89 84 80 78 76 74 74 73 73 72 72 RH..............25 30 36 41 45 48 51 51 53 50 49 48 20 FT WIND DIR..S S E E E NE NE NE N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 99. MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT. WIND................ SLOPES...........WINDS NORTH 5 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. RIDGETOP.........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 MPH. CHC WETTING RAIN....5 PERCENT. LAL.................2 BECOMING 1 LATE IN THE DAY. MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN 13500-14500 FT AGL 0900 PDT TO 1400 PDT...THE 8000 FT AGL AFTER 1500 PDT. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 5 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE MID AFTERNOON. TIME (PDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........27 27 39 39 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............72 88 98 98 RH..............49 31 22 20 20 FT WIND DIR..N N SE S 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 10 $$ FORECASTER...ROB BALFOUR REQUESTED BY...JILL MOORE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110826.KEN__.01/SGX