FNUS73 KUNR 262146
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR EARLY RISER...BKF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
346 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1518 MDT ON AUGUST 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WYOMING WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND MAY REACH THE
FIRE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORM WILL BE LIGHTNING AND STRONG
ERRATIC WINDS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AROUND
MIDNIGHT NEAR THE INVERSION AND LAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS MAY IMPACT THE FIRE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EVEN IN AREAS
WITHOUT THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY DUE TO THE TERRAIN.

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WIND OF 2 TO 6 MPH.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9200 TO 10200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WIND OF 2 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH AND INCREASING TO 5 TO 12 MPH AROUND SUNSET.
                    AFTER 2200...SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    40 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 TO 900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST AFTER 0800.
                    SHIFTING TO THE EAST 3 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 TO 8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.

$$
FORECASTER...MS
REQUESTED BY...CREW 8
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110826.EARLY.01/UNR