FNUS73 KDLH 281146 FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR PAGAMI CREEK...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 646 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1918 CDT ON AUGUST 27. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OUT MUCH WARMER AT FERNBERG THAN OTHER LOCATIONS THIS MORNING WITH 56 DEGREES AT 6 AM. TEMPERATURES AT OBSERVING LOCATIONS SURROUNDING THE FERNBERG SITE ARE GENERALLY 38 TO 43. A FAIRLY COMPLEX SCENARIO SETTING UP TODAY IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION. THINK THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TODAY. TO BE HONEST...THINK THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION AT THE FIRE SITE IS VERY SMALL BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT DUE TO A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. THINK THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AT THE FIRE SITE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FOR TODAY ARE A BIT LESS CLEAR CUT THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL THINK IT WILL REACH NEAR 35 PERCENT AROUND 2 PM...AS IT DID YESTERDAY. NOT MUCH WIND TO SPEAK OF TODAY BUT A BIT MORE GUSTY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SWITCHES WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST COMPUTER MODELS ONLY BRING LIGHT AMOUNTS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78. MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6650 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (45000). TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............55 67 70 72 75 75 RH..............76 60 48 41 36 37 20 FT WIND DIR..NW W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..0 1 2 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50. MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 3 TO 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8500). TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM TEMP............69 60 55 52 50 49 RH..............44 53 64 74 83 86 20 FT WIND DIR..W W SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 4 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80. MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......750 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 2600 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (27900) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (121900) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............48 58 67 74 77 76 RH..............86 75 56 44 37 37 20 FT WIND DIR..SW W W W W NW 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 8 9 9 7 20 FT WIND GUST.6 8 14 15 15 13 $$ FORECASTER...DEAN P. REQUESTED BY...FIRE MANAGEMENT TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110827.PAGAM.03/DLH