FNUS75 KRIW 271114
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK BUTTE...IA CDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
514 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0040 MDT ON AUGUST 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH LOW AFTERNOON RH WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE FIRE TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
LIGHT AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN TODAY. WEST IS THE MOST LIKELY
DIRECTION...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ANY DIRECTION DUE TO LIGHT NATURE
OF THE WINDS.

A DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE
BEST SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EVEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AS THE AREA BECOMES AFFECTED BY
THUNDERSTORMS.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER AND RH A BIT HIGHER THAN
WHAT OCCURS TODAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10 PERCENT)...BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....89-93.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....VARIABLE 3-6 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 3-7 MPH
                    AROUND 1500.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.2 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-63.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOMINATED BY GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM WINDS
                    IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM WINDS...BECOMING
                    NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-87.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHEAST 4-7 MPH
                    BY NOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH.
LAL.................3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...MIKE WENGERT
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110827.BLACK.02/RIW