FNUS73 KDLH 281601 FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR PAGAMI CREEK...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1101 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1026 CDT ON AUGUST 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL TRY TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER THE WILDFIRE LOCATION. HOWEVER A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE JET STREAM AND TRY TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. A LITTLE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING NW TO SE OVER THE IRON RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SW OF THE FIRE LOCATION. THEREFORE...WILL MOSTLY LIKELY SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. THE CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30 PERCENT RANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE A SHARP DROP IN HUMIDITIES AROUND 1-3 PM CDT. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH AN INCREASE TO ABOUT 3 TO 5 MPH FROM THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW OVER THE WILDFIRE LOCATION AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE SLIDES ACROSS ONTARIO AND BRUSHES THE ARROWHEAD WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES TOMORROW...IN THE UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77. MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (45000). TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM TEMP............64 67 70 72 74 75 75 74 72 RH..............56 50 45 39 36 32 35 38 41 20 FT WIND DIR..N W W W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..0 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 20 FT WIND GUST. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50. MAX HUMIDITY........75-86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 3 TO 5 MPH IN THE EARLY MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8500). TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM TEMP............69 64 60 56 55 53 52 51 50 49 49 48 RH..............44 48 53 59 64 69 74 80 83 86 86 86 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80. MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......750 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 2600 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (27900) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (121900) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM TEMP............48 53 58 63 67 71 74 76 77 78 76 74 RH..............86 80 75 65 56 49 44 40 37 36 37 38 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW W W W W W W W NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.6 7 8 9 14 15 15 15 15 14 13 8 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN REQUESTED BY...FIRE MANAGEMENT TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110828.PAGAM.01/DLH