FNUS75 KRIW 281725
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PINE CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1125 AM MDT SUN AUG 28 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1104 MDT ON AUGUST 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT
THE FIRE...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS. THERE IS A LOT
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...READY AND WILLING TO FALL
AS RAIN. A DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THIS MORNING...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THESE STORMS
WILL NOT BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...SO THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL NOT EXCEED 25 MPH. THERE WILL
BE A FLASH FLOOD RISK ALONG BURN SCARS HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LIGHT
STEERING FLOW AND THE LARGE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

MONDAY COULD BE A TRICKY DAY. A MORE ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY AND IT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE
AS A RESULT...HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MUCH DRIER. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY
TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. EVEN IF THE STORMS DO NOT
FORM...FIRE BEHAVIOR COULD INCREASE DUE TO THE WARM DRY AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...THE HAINES IS STILL AT A 5 AND NOT A 6 BECAUSE
IT MAY NOT BE DRY ENOUGH.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-79.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.55 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-90 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15
                    MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 15 TO 17
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 50. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110828.PINEC.01/RIW