FNUS75 KRIW 281552 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR RED ROCK...BRIDGER-TETON NATIONAL FOREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 952 AM MDT SUN AUG 28 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0902 MDT ON AUGUST 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE FIRE...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS. THERE IS A LOT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...READY AND WILLING TO FALL AS RAIN. A DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...SO THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL NOT EXCEED 25 MPH. THERE WILL BE A FLASH FLOOD RISK ALONG BURN SCARS HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND THE LARGE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. MONDAY COULD BE A TRICKY DAY. A MORE ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY AND IT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT...HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MUCH DRIER. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE STORMS THAT OCCUR TODAY TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. EVEN IF THE STORMS DO NOT FORM...FIRE BEHAVIOR COULD INCREASE DUE TO THE WARM DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...THE HAINES IS STILL AT A 5 AND NOT A 6 BECAUSE IT MAY NOT BE DRY ENOUGH. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...ALLEN .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79. MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 3-5 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-9 MPH AFTER 1200. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.55 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400-6400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST 14 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (21700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (72000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-47. MAX HUMIDITY........90-100 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST 4-7 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................4 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-4700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1500 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 13 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (60900 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (8400 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80. MIN HUMIDITY........23-27 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 12 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-3700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500-7500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 23 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (49400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (127300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 12 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS... THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...ALLEN REQUESTED BY...LIME IC REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110828.REDRO.01/RIW