FNUS75 KGJT 292316
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAMBRITO 2...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
516 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1614 MDT ON AUGUST 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN COLORADO AS THE
RESIDENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED AND WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER...BUT A DOWNTURN IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WILL RESULT IN A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BURN SITE.


.TUESDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO
                    12100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH...INCREASING TO WEST 13 MPH
                    IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH...THEN INCREASING
                    TO 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE
                    LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1300 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING
                    TO 12200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH INCREASING TO 15 MPH IN THE
                    BY 1500.

OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL CARRY A LITTLE BETTER
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THEREFORE AN UPTICK IN LATE DAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY'S
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER AND ERRATIC
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...DURANGO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110829.SAMBR.01/GJT