FNUS75 KRIW 300337
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR NOWLIN FIRE...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
937 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2046 MDT ON AUGUST 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH WYOMING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS OVER THE FIRE AREA. RH'S WILL BE
LOWERING AS WELL...SO THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL INCREASE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP WEDNESDAY EVENING.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...T.BAKER

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (35-45 PERCENT) WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5-10 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AROUND 1300.
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5-10 MPH...INCREASING TO 12 TO 17
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AROUND 1300 IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (45000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (200000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........49-52 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WEST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...
                    DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH AROUND 2200.  GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WEST 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...
                    DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH AROUND 2200.  GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2500 FT AGL
                    AROUND 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
                    15 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (200000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (37500 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-73.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-18 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 17 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH AROUND 1100. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 15
                    TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AROUND 1200.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH AROUND
                    1200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (45000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (240000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...
THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...T.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...JASON LAWHON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110829.NOWLI.02/RIW