FNUS73 KAPX 301308
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR HOW THAT GOES...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
908 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON AUGUST 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...TWO CONCERNS FOR THE BURN SITE TODAY...FIRST IS THE
WEAKENING COLD FRONT NEAR THE TIP OF THE MIT THAT MAY KICK OFF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE
SITE WON'T RECEIVE ANY RAIN TODAY...IT IS POSSIBLE. THE SECOND
CONCERN IS THAT THE LIGHT WEST WIND SOULD BECOME
UPSLOPE...PROBABLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXPOSURE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE 45-50 PRECENT...AND AT
WORST SHOULDN'T FALL BELOW 40 PERCENT TODAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........77 AT IGNITION...MAX 80.
RH..................50 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE BECOMING WEST 5 TO 7 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5300-6400 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1400) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (1500).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........37  50  50  50  46
WEATHER COV.....    ISO ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....    RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............77  78  79  79  78
RH..............50  50  49  49  50
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..6   7   6   6   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......14001500140013001100

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 56.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........46     41     41     41     41     41
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............76     71     65     61     60     58
RH..............54     61     73     81     81     86
20 FT WIND......W 4    N 2    N 1    NW 1   NW 1   W 1
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110830.HOWTH.01/APX