FNUS73 KAPX 301254 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR MEMORABLE MIDDLE RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 854 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON AUGUST 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY. WHILE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE TIP OF THE MIT...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT AT THIS POINT THIS MORNING THAT THE BURN SITE WON'T SEE ANY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT AT THE LEAST. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........73 AT IGNITION...MAX 82. RH..................55 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 0-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000-6400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (800) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1400). TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........34 34 34 47 47 47 52 WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW TEMP............73 76 78 79 80 80 79 RH..............55 52 50 50 49 49 52 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 7 7 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......800 110012001200130014001300 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 57. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........52 42 42 42 41 41 WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............77 71 65 62 61 59 RH..............56 66 78 81 81 87 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 5 S 3 SW 2 SW 1 SW 0 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 4 SMOKE DISP......1000 400 100 0 0 0 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 79. RH..................MIN 47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-5400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(800). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........36 70 70 69 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............57 63 76 79 RH..............93 78 52 49 20 FT WIND......CALM S 3 S 6G10 S 7G10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 200 400 700 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE THOMPSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110830.MEMOR.01/APX