FNUS75 KBYZ 310134
FWSBYZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR STACEY...MILES CITY DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
734 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1909 MDT ON AUGUST 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM MDT
THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM MDT
THURSDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WIND SHIFT AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A COLD FRONT FOR THE FIRE AREA...

PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FIRE TONIGHT...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS WERE THAT THE AREA
WILL BE DRY TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE FIRE TONIGHT AND A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE FIRE FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 5
TO 15 MPH. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FIRE WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
FIRE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 20 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1...NO THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
MAX HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................11 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................11 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ARTHUR
REQUESTED BY...JACALYNN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110830.STACE.01/BYZ