FNUS75 KGJT 302312
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAULS CREEK RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
512 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1645 MDT ON AUGUST 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING SOME DRYING TO SOUTHWEST COLORADO...THEREFORE LOOK FOR A
SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN THE LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MIXES TO THE SURFACE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). WIDELY SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLY 3-8 MPH UNTIL 1900...THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.
                    AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    3-6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR (5000 KNOT-FEET)
                    BY SUNSET.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................3 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL AT 1700...DECREASING TO
                    AROUND 5000 FT AGL BY 1900...THEN LOWERING
                    TO 1000 FT AGL AFTER SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH UNTIL 1900...THEN TRANSITIONING
                    TO DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH BY SUNSET.


.WEDNESDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH...INCREASING TO
                    8-12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO
                    12800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 11 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........54-59%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.



$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS TIPTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110830.SAULS.01/GJT