FNUS75 KBOU 010115 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN RIVER...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 715 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. MOISTURE ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS COOLS OFF AND BECOMES MORE STABLE. DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(70-80%) UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47. MAX HUMIDITY........66-74%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10-16 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14-22 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTH 10-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-78. MIN HUMIDITY........22-28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 14-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12-20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST 26-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 8600-9600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-48. MAX HUMIDITY........60-68%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN AROUND 5 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17-28 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-72. MIN HUMIDITY........20-28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 14-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 6400-7400 FT AGL AFTER 1000. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .LABOR DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR MICHIGANRIVER. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 08/31-19 57 10 2 68 31 SW14 22 3 2 SW35 6678 SW24 168504 E 08/31-20 48 10 2 64 35 SW13 21 2 2 W37 3578 SW20 87368 G 08/31-21 48 10 2 61 39 S12 18 2 2 W39 478 SW15 6232 P 08/31-22 48 10 2 59 42 S10 17 2 2 W41 380 SW14 4793 P 08/31-23 48 10 2 57 46 S10 17 2 2 SW43 283 S13 3353 P 09/01-00 29 3 1 54 52 S10 16 2 1 SW44 185 S12 1913 P 09/01-01 29 3 1 51 57 S10 17 2 1 SW40 190 S13 2037 P 09/01-02 29 3 1 49 61 S12 18 2 1 SW37 195 S13 2160 P 09/01-03 29 3 1 48 64 S12 18 2 1 SW36 201 S13 2284 P 09/01-04 29 3 1 47 66 S10 17 2 1 SW38 181 S12 1883 P 09/01-05 29 3 1 47 68 S 9 15 2 1 SW44 162 S10 1481 P 09/01-06 27 0 0 47 68 S 8 13 2 1 SW47 143 S 9 1079 P 09/01-07 27 0 0 48 66 S 7 7 2 1 SW48 310 S 9 2383 P 09/01-08 27 0 0 53 56 S 7 7 2 1 SW48 476 S 9 3688 P 09/01-09 27 0 0 59 46 SW 7 7 2 1 W47 643 SW 9 4992 P 09/01-10 27 0 0 64 38 SW 9 15 2 1 SW48 2981 SW16 67434 G 09/01-11 27 0 0 67 34 SW13 20 2 1 SW49 5318 SW22 129877 V 09/01-12 54 10 2 70 30 SW15 24 2 2 SW49 7656 SW29 192320 E 09/01-13 54 10 2 72 28 SW15 24 2 2 SW49 8467 SW30 222456 E 09/01-14 54 10 2 73 27 SW15 24 2 2 SW49 9278 SW31 252593 E 09/01-15 54 10 2 74 26 SW15 24 2 2 SW49 10090 SW32 282729 E 09/01-16 54 10 2 74 27 SW16 26 2 2 SW48 9539 SW32 265459 E 09/01-17 54 10 2 73 27 SW18 29 2 2 SW48 8988 SW32 248190 E 09/01-18 44 10 2 70 30 SW18 30 2 2 SW48 8437 SW31 230920 E 09/01-19 44 10 2 67 34 SW14 22 2 2 SW48 5788 SW24 155344 E 09/01-20 44 10 2 63 40 SW 9 15 2 2 W48 3139 SW17 79768 G 09/01-21 44 10 2 61 43 SW 7 7 2 2 W48 490 SW10 4192 P 09/01-22 44 10 2 59 45 SW 7 7 2 2 W48 409 SW10 3647 P 09/01-23 44 10 2 57 47 SW 9 15 3 2 W47 328 SW12 3102 P 09/02-00 12 0 0 55 50 SW10 16 3 1 W48 247 SW12 2558 P 09/02-01 12 0 0 52 55 SW 9 14 3 1 W51 263 SW 9 2097 P 09/02-02 12 0 0 51 59 SW 7 7 3 1 W53 278 SW 7 1636 P 09/02-03 12 0 0 50 61 SW 5 5 3 1 W56 294 SW 5 1175 P 09/02-04 12 0 0 49 59 SW 3 3 3 1 W56 315 SW 5 1201 P 09/02-05 12 0 0 49 56 S 3 3 3 1 W56 335 S 5 1228 P 09/02-06 13 0 0 49 54 S 3 3 3 1 W55 355 S 5 1254 P 09/02-07 13 0 0 50 53 S 3 3 3 1 W54 1537 SW 8 18836 P 09/02-08 13 0 0 53 50 SW 5 5 3 1 W51 2719 SW12 36418 P 09/02-09 13 0 0 58 44 W 6 6 3 1 W47 3901 W16 53999 F 09/02-10 13 0 0 61 36 W 9 15 3 1 W40 5003 W21 96374 G 09/02-11 13 0 0 63 30 W14 22 3 1 W33 6105 W24 138749 V 09/02-12 29 1 0 65 26 W17 28 3 1 W26 7207 W29 181124 E 09/02-13 29 1 0 67 24 W18 30 3 1 W22 7304 W28 174792 E 09/02-14 29 1 0 68 23 W18 29 4 1 W20 7401 W26 168461 E 09/02-15 29 1 0 68 22 W17 28 4 1 W18 7498 W25 162129 E 09/02-16 29 1 0 68 22 W16 26 4 1 W17 7196 W23 144242 V 09/02-17 29 1 0 67 24 W15 23 4 1 W16 6895 W21 126356 V 09/02-18 25 0 0 67 24 W13 21 4 1 W16 6594 W18 108469 V 09/02-19 25 0 0 64 27 W10 16 4 1 W16 5780 W17 88138 G 09/02-20 25 0 0 62 30 W 7 7 4 1 W15 4966 W15 67806 G 09/02-21 25 0 0 60 32 SW 5 5 4 1 W15 4152 W13 47475 F 09/02-22 25 0 0 59 34 SW 3 3 4 1 W16 3010 W10 32621 P 09/02-23 25 0 0 57 36 SW 3 3 4 1 W17 1868 SW 7 17766 P 09/03-00 9 0 0 55 39 S 3 3 4 1 W18 726 SW 5 2912 P 09/03-01 9 0 0 53 41 S 3 3 4 1 W20 594 SW 5 2290 P 09/03-02 9 0 0 52 43 S 3 3 3 1 W22 461 S 3 1668 P 09/03-03 9 0 0 51 43 S 3 3 3 1 W23 329 S 3 1045 P 09/03-04 9 0 0 51 44 S 3 3 3 1 W24 346 S 3 1070 P 09/03-05 9 0 0 51 44 S 3 3 3 1 W24 363 S 3 1094 P 09/03-06 9 0 0 51 44 S 3 3 3 1 W25 380 S 3 1118 P 09/03-07 9 0 0 52 43 S 3 3 3 1 W24 2097 S 6 17409 P 09/03-08 9 0 0 56 38 W 2 2 3 1 W24 3813 W 8 33699 P 09/03-09 9 0 0 60 34 W 2 2 3 1 W23 5530 W10 49990 F 09/03-10 9 0 0 64 30 W 2 2 3 1 W22 6634 W 9 54904 F 09/03-11 9 0 0 66 28 W 3 3 3 1 W20 7738 W 9 59819 F 09/03-12 54 5 1 68 26 W 3 3 3 1 W18 8842 W 8 64733 G 09/03-13 54 5 1 69 25 W 3 3 3 1 W17 9764 W 9 79219 G 09/03-14 54 5 1 70 23 W 5 5 3 1 W16 10685 W10 93705 G 09/03-15 54 5 1 71 22 NW 5 5 3 1 W16 11607 W10 108191 V 09/03-16 54 5 1 71 22 NW 5 5 3 1 W16 11385 W10 107766 V 09/03-17 54 5 1 70 23 NW 5 5 3 1 W17 11163 W12 107341 V 09/03-18 37 2 0 69 23 NW 5 5 3 1 SW17 10942 W12 106917 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ DANKERS...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JOHN MYER REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110831.MICHI.01/BOU