FNUS75 KBYZ 311410
FWSBYZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR RESERVOIR FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
810 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0723 MDT ON AUGUST 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MDT
THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 6 A.M. THURSDAY FOR STRONG
COLD FRONT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTHWEST OF THE FIRE SITE THIS MORNING AND WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH 1000. GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
A BREAK BEHIND THESE STORMS AND WARMING AND DRYING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH SHOULD BE EXPECTED
AT THE SITE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING A THREAT FROM ANY
STORM. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ON THE SITE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHEAST BY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. HUMIDITY ABOVE 80 PERCENT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY MORNING AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BORSUM

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1000 AND AFTER 1500.
CWR.................13 PERCENT.
LAL.................3...9 TO 15 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING 19 TO 24 MPH GUSTS TO 35.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 35 TO 45 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................16 PERCENT.
LAL.................3...9 TO 15 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING TO 9 TO
                    15 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 30 TO 45 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................36 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-57.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BORSUM
REQUESTED BY...B641
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110831.RESER.01/BYZ