FNUS75 KCYS 311057
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHRISTNICK...BLM RAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
457 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0435 MDT ON AUGUST 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT
THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
AT LEAST TWO CRITICAL DAYS AT THE FIRE SITE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES PLUMMETING BELOW 15 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM TODAY THROUGH 8 PM THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...BUT COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WILL
OVERALL BE LIMITED. EVEN SO...ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THEY NEAR THE FIRE SITE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY
RECOVER SIMILAR TO THOSE EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH THE
CONTINUED DRY AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WINDS A BIT
LIGHTER FOR FRIDAY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88 TO 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........12 TO 16 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH UNTIL
                    1000...THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    25 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
CWR.................ZERO PERCENT UNTIL 1400...THEN 10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13300 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (87700-333600 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 0200...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLEAR (20 TO 30 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60 TO 64.
MAX HUMIDITY........40 TO 50 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
   UNTIL 2000...THEN DECREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
                   UNTIL 0100...THEN DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN ZERO.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT DECREASING TO POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT (2700-169200 KNOT-FT).

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86 TO 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........13 TO 16 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
CWR.................ZERO PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12300 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (87700-271300 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...HAHN
REQUESTED BY...ZACH HARTSHORN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110831.CHRIS.01/CYS