FNUS73 KDLH 011132 FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR PAGAMI CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 632 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1934 CDT ON AUGUST 31. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... UNEXPECTED COOLING AT 10 000 FEET IS REMOVING A CAP AND ALLOWING RAIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND SPREAD FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED. WE RECENTLY INCREASED POPS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THAT THE SUN WILL EMERGE FOR VERY LONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS DISORGANIZED AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL NOT INCREASE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS OVER 15 MPH FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84. MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 13 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 2700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11200) INCREASING TO GOOD (33500) LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO GOOD (58500) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO GOOD (34000) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............62 66 73 79 82 81 RH..............97 93 81 72 67 69 20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 9 14 14 14 14 20 FT WIND GUST.9 16 22 24 24 22 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH...THEN BECOMING NORTH 4 TO 7 MPH LATE BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1000 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING WEST LATE. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5300) DECREASING TO POOR (1600) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO POOR (11700) LATE. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM TEMP............77 69 65 63 62 61 RH..............79 100 100 100 100 100 20 FT WIND DIR..S SE SE SE N N 20 FT WIND SPD..11 8 6 5 4 6 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 12 10 6 12 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72. MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 18 MPH...THEN DECREASING TO 8 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (45600) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (73900) LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (95400) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (74100) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............60 63 66 69 70 69 RH..............100 90 68 53 47 49 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..11 15 16 16 14 9 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 26 26 22 16 $$ FORECASTER...PETER REQUESTED BY...DOUG MIEDTKE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110831.PAGAM.01/DLH