FNUS74 KLIX 312358 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR N O EAST...CITY OF NEW ORLEANS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 658 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND A SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION FROM THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ALMOST ALL OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. CONCERNING THE SMOKE TRANSPORT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OR EAST SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL TEND TO TRANSPORT SMOKE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE LAKE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO MIX OR DISPERSE THE SMOKE SO THAT CONCENTRATIONS REMAIN LOWER THAN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........52 52 52 55 55 55 58 58 58 60 60 60 WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............91 90 88 85 84 83 82 81 80 80 80 80 RH..............54 57 63 65 70 72 74 79 79 82 82 82 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E SE SE E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 EYE LVL WND DIR.E E E E E SE SE E E E E E EYE LVL WND SPD.9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 EYE LVL WND GST.20 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.9 3.9 3.9 MIX HGT (KM)....1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.21 21 21 21 17 17 17 14 14 17 17 17 TRANS SPD (M/S).9 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 8 8 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 .THURSDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........60 63 67 67 71 67 WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............80 82 88 90 91 90 RH..............82 79 66 64 60 62 20 FT WIND......E 10 E 10 E 12 E 13 E 13 E 12 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 25 30 30 25 EYE LEVEL WIND..E 10 E 10 E 12 E 13 E 13 E 12 EYE LEVEL WIND..20 25 25 30 30 25 MIX HGT (FT)....3900 3700 4600 4600 4700 4000 MIX HGT (M).....1190 1130 1400 1400 1430 1220 TRANSPORT WIND..E 17 SE 21 E 23 E 23 E 31 E 31 TRAN WIND (M/S).E 8 SE 9 E 10 E 10 E 14 E 14 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 50 50 50 50 50 .THURSDAY NIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........67 63 68 68 74 78 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............89 86 83 82 80 79 RH..............61 68 74 77 82 85 20 FT WIND......E 10 SE 10 SE 10 SE 10 SE 10 E 10 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 25 25 EYE LEVEL WIND..E 10 SE 10 SE 10 SE 10 SE 10 E 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..25 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (FT)....4000 3300 4100 4100 2200 3300 MIX HGT (M).....1220 1010 1250 1250 670 1010 TRANSPORT WIND..E 31 E 31 SE 29 SE 29 SE 18 SE 22 TRAN WIND (M/S).E 14 E 14 SE 13 SE 13 SE 8 SE 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 40 40 40 40 40 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. .SATURDAY... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. EAST WINDS AROUND 17 MPH. .SUNDAY... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...COLLINS SIMONEAUX TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110831.NOEAS.03/LIX