FNUS72 KMFL 311021 FWSMFL SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST OF COOTER CREEK...SFWMD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 621 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON AUGUST 31. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 5 MPH TODAY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE BURN AREA. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL VERY UNSTABLE TODAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SO ANY HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY OVER THE BURN SITE. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THE BURN SITE. THE DISPERSION INDEX FOR TODAY WILL ALSO BE IN THE UPPER 20S WHICH IS IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 91. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 57 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................3 UNTIL 1100...THEN 4. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 1 TO 10 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 28. LVORI...............5. CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM SKY (%).........65 70 70 70 70 60 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV........CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC TEMP............84 89 90 90 88 84 RH..............72 61 59 58 61 70 20 FT WIND......SE 1 SE 3 SE 5 SE 5 E 5 E 3 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 10 10 5 EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 1 SE 3 SE 5 SE 5 E 5 E 3 EYE LEVEL WIND.. 5 10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (FT)....1400 3500 4500 4500 3800 2400 MIXNG WIND......SE 1 SE 7 SE 10 SE 10 E 10 E 8 DISPERSION IDX..11 18 28 28 28 18 LVORI...........5 5 5 5 9 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 60 20 LAL.............3 4 4 4 4 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 74. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 99 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-900 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 2 TO 10 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....28 DECREASING TO 1. LVORI...............9. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 90. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 57 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-4500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 2 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 30 LATE IN THE MORNING. LVORI...............6. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...BAXTER REQUESTED BY...JAMES SCHUETTE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110831.EASTO.01/MFL