FNUS75 KRIW 312022
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR VAIL FIRE...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
221 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1430 MDT ON AUGUST 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SATELLITE DEMONSTRATING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AROUND THE FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END
THIS EVENING...WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FIRE THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 2200 AND 0200...CAUSING WIND TO BRIEFLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BEFORE RETURNING TO ITS DIURNAL PATTERN. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASED
DAYTIME HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY. A RETURNING WESTERLY WIND OVER THE
FIRE WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL BE
COMMON OVER THE FIRE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH BY 2200...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    BY 0100 SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 0500.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-62.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-33 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH BY 1300.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 25 MPH BY 1400.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...DALLAS LOOKOUT
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110831.VAILF.01/RIW