FNUS75 KCYS 010725 FWSCYS SPOT FORECAST FOR CHRISTNICK...BLM RAD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 125 AM MDT THU SEP 1 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0043 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE FIRE SITE TODAY AND AGAIN POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH THESE SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT AROUND SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT THE BURN SITE THROUGH 4 AM...ALTHOUGH NO WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING OR AROUND NOONTIME...WITH GUSTS AGAIN IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW PERCENT LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY LATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FIRE. BY EVENING A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR AT THE FIRE AS A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRE LOCATION. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL TURN NORTH/NORTHEAST AT AROUND 7 OR 8 PM THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND MOISTURES WILL JUMP BEHIND THE FRONT. SO...HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE MUCH BETTER TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO EVEN SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE FRONT WILL GET FLUSHED BACK EAST FRIDAY MORNING...GIVING WAY TO MORE POTENTIALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. .EARLY THIS MORNING... SKY/WEATHER........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0400. MIN TEMPERATURE....65 TO 70. MAX HUMIDITY.......40 TO 45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT).......SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC AROUND WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 0400. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AROUND SUNRISE. CWR................ZERO PERCENT. LAL................2. HAINES INDEX.......5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT......DECREASING TO AROUND 1500 FEET BY SUNRISE. TRANSPORT WINDS....SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL....BECOMING POOR AROUND SUNRISE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 0800... THEN MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 1300... THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....86 TO 90. MIN HUMIDITY........13 TO 16 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL 1300...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CWR.................ZERO PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (87700-271300 KNOT-FT). .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 0200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING BUT MOST SHOULD BE STAY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MIN TEMPERATURE.....55 TO 60. MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH UNTIL 1900 OR 2000...THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 0400. CWR.................5 PERCENT. LAL.................3. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1700 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH UNTIL 1900 OR 2000...THEN NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT BECOMING POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT (8600-154600 KNOT-FT). .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 0900...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....75 TO 80. MIN HUMIDITY........13 TO 16 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. CWR.................ZERO PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN WEST AROUND 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BECOMING EXCELLENT (28900-96200 KNOT-FT). $$ FORECASTER...HAHN REQUESTED BY...RAD TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110901.CHRIS.01/CYS