FNUS73 KEAX 011250 FWSEAX SPOT FORECAST FOR HAYS PASTURE PATROL...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 750 AM CDT THU SEP 1 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY...AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT EASTERN KANSAS WHERE LOCAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED. LOW FUEL STICK MOISTURES LESS THAN 8 PERCENT...COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIY VALUES LESS THAN 25 PERCENT WILL MAKE FIRE CONTROL DIFFICULT. LINN AND MIAMI COUNTIES IN KANSAS... AND BATES COUNTY IN MISSOURI WOULD LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 104. MIN HUMIDITY........22 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 21 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 25 MPH. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........34 29 23 16 13 12 12 13 14 15 16 WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE....RW RW TEMP............83 87 92 95 98 100 102 102 103 101 100 RH..............56 48 41 35 30 26 24 23 22 23 25 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 12 14 16 18 21 15 16 15 14 13 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 20 20 20 25 20 20 15 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MAX HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........17 16 15 14 13 12 11 12 13 14 15 16 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............96 92 88 86 85 83 82 82 81 80 80 79 RH..............27 33 39 44 48 52 57 57 57 58 58 58 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..12 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 103. MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9700-11100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........16 17 19 21 23 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............79 82 86 90 94 97 99 100 101 102 100 98 RH..............58 54 46 40 35 32 29 28 28 28 30 32 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 8 9 10 10 12 10 10 9 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 15 15 15 10 10 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 $$ FORECASTER...WFO EAX REQUESTED BY...DEON STEINLE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110901.HAYSP.01/EAX