FNUS75 KRIW 020411
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCK CANYON FIRE...IA RWC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1011 PM MDT THU SEP 1 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2150 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK...DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WILDFIRE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 11 PM AND
MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST BY AROUND 2 AM. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS...COMBINED WITH
VERY LOW RH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WILDFIRE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST. HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND MUCH WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY.

PLEASE USE THE 20 FOOT WINDS TO APPROXIMATE THE RIDGE TOP WINDS
SINCE THE EXPOSURE GIVEN ON THE SPOT WAS RIDGE TOP.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10 PERCENT)...BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER 0300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 3-7 MPH...BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    BETWEEN 2300 AND MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
                    EAST 5-10 MPH BY 0200...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
                    AFTER 0500.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....VERY SIMILAR TO 20 FOOT WINDS.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH BY 0200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9400-10200 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-12 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    5-10 MPH BY AROUND 1000...THEN BECOMING WEST
                    15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 25 MPH BETWEEN
                    1300 AND 1500.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....VERY SIMILAR TO 20 FOOT WINDS.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000-8000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 20 MPH
                    BY AROUND NOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (51000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (168100 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.LABOR DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...PETER BERNARD
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110901.ROCKC.01/RIW