FNUS72 KJAX 041823
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR OCEAN BAY FIRE...USDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
223 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1900 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTH WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH ON MONDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1500 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 7 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LVORI...............9.

TIME (EDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........94     95     94     94     85     94
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............82     78     76     75     73     72
RH..............69     81     87     92     97     100
20 FT WIND......S 7    S 7    S 6    SE 6   SE 6   SE 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....3600   1500   1000   1000   400    1000
TRANSPORT WIND..S 10   S 8    S 7    S 7    SE 8   S 9
LVORI...........6      8      9      9      9      9
DISPERSION INDX.27     16     8      5      5      6
CHC OF PCPN (%).60     50     50     50     30     30
LAL.............4      3      3      3      3      3

.LABOR DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 16 MPH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 0800...THEN 4 UNTIL 1400...THEN 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-3500 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 24 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....57.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...ZIBURA
REQUESTED BY...PETE MYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110904.OCEAN.03/JAX