FNUS72 KJAX 042304
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR OCEAN BAY FIRE...USDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
704 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1849 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AS LEE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST
REGION...MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH ON MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AND GUSTY AT TIMES...AS A RESULT OF
OUTFLOW FROM AREA THUNDERSTORMS.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LVORI...............9.

TIME (EDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........94     95     94     94     85     94
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............82     78     76     75     73     72
RH..............72     81     87     92     97     100
20 FT WIND......S 7    S 7    S 6    SE 6   SE 6   SE 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....3600   2300   1000   1000   400    1000
TRANSPORT WIND..S 10   S 8    S 7    S 7    SE 8   S 9
LVORI...........9      9      9      9      9      9
CHC OF PCPN (%).60     50     50     50     30     30
LAL.............4      3      3      3      3      3

.LABOR DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 16
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 0800...THEN 4 UNTIL 1400...THEN 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-3500 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 23 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....57.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........94     95     95     86     85     85
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............72     73     83     90     92     91
RH..............100    100    75     62     59     61
20 FT WIND......S 6    S 7    S 10   S 14   S 16   S 15
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     15     20     25     20
MIX HGT (FT)....1000   1500   1500   2500   3500   3500
TRANSPORT WIND..S 9    S 13   S 13   S 18   S 23   S 23
CHC OF PCPN (%).30     60     60     60     80     80
LAL.............3      4      4      4      5      5

$$
FORECASTER...STRUBLE
REQUESTED BY...PETE MYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110904.OCEAN.05/JAX