FNUS72 KJAX 050927
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR OCEAN BAY FIRE...USDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
527 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0516 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTHWARD OVER THE
AREA AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE MOVES FARTHER INLAND. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH TONIGHT... THEN SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 15 TO 17 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700-4000 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 24 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....69.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........94     95     95     86     85     85
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............72     73     82     88     90     89
RH..............100    100    83     70     64     65
20 FT WIND......SE 3   SE 5   S 13   S 17   S 17   S 17
20 FT WIND GUST.5      10     15     20     25     20
MIX HGT (FT)....1000   1500   1500   2500   4000   4000
TRANSPORT WIND..S 9    S 12   S 12   S 21   S 24   S 24

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 3 UNTIL 0200...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-1600 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 14 TO 21 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....13.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........83     86     86     89     78     78
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............87     82     80     79     78     76
RH..............70     82     88     92     96     99
20 FT WIND......S 14   S 9    S 9    S 10   S 10   S 10
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....3700   1600   1600   1100   600    600
TRANSPORT WIND..S 21   S 15   S 15   S 14   S 15   S 15
LAL.............4      3      3      3      4      4

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 17 MPH.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 0800...THEN 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-3800 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....62.

$$
FORECASTER...TRABERT
REQUESTED BY...PETE MYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110905.OCEAN.02/JAX