FNUS72 KJAX 052353
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR OCEAN BAY FIRE...USDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
753 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1941 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTHWARD OVER THE
AREA AS THE REMNANTS OF LEE MOVES FARTHER INLAND. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 10 MPH TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-1100 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 15 TO 22 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....13.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........90     90     83     83     81     84
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............86     81     79     77     76     75
RH..............76     85     90     95     100    100
20 FT WIND......S 15   S 14   S 12   S 12   S 12   S 14
20 FT WIND GUST.20     20     20     15     20     20
MIX HGT (FT)....4000   4000   1100   1100   600    1100
TRANSPORT WIND..S 22   S 16   S 15   S 15   S 15   S 16
LVORI...........5      5      5      5      5      5
CHC OF PCPN (%).60     40     40     40     40     40
LAL.............4      3      3      3      3      3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 14 TO 17 MPH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 0800...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 16 TO 23 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....55.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........84     93     93     81     84     84
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............74     75     82     88     89     88
RH..............100    100    79     66     61     61
20 FT WIND......S 14   S 15   S 16   SW 17  SW 16  SW 15
20 FT WIND GUST.20     25     25     25     25     20
MIX HGT (FT)....1100   1600   1600   2200   2900   2900
TRANSPORT WIND..S 16   S 18   S 18   S 22   SW 23  SW 23
CHC OF PCPN (%).40     60     60     60     70     70
LAL.............3      4      4      4      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...STRUBLE
REQUESTED BY...PETE MYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110905.OCEAN.04/JAX