FNUS76 KPQR 070139
FWSPQR

SPOT FORECAST FOR FISHERMANS POINT FIRE...ODF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
639 PM PDT TUE SEP 6 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1739 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
PDT THURSDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE DISTRICT FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS START TO BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTH OREGON COAST. IT WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE NORTH AND EXPAND EAST
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND EAST WIND FOR ALL
CASCADE ZONES BEGINNING TONIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD BE NEAR
THE CASCADES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SECOND ISSUE CONCERNS THE
POSSIBILITY OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING COVERAGE AND TIMING BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION THE THREAT IN THE OREGON CASCADE ZONES THURSDAY. THE RED
FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...FOR A
COMBINATION OF DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING. THERE MAY BE AN 18 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LESS-CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BUT...LONGER RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER OFFSHORE EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
CWR (%).............0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH DECREASING TO
                    DRAINAGE BY MORNING.

TIME (PDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........0      0      0      8      8      8
TEMP............80     75     70     67     63     61
RH..............35     39     42     45     50     55
20 FT WIND......NW 4   NW 2   NW 2   N 2    DRAINAGE
   MAX GUST.....10     5      5      5      5      5
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR (%).............0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 97.
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 2 MPH INCREASING TO
                    5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (PDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........0      0      10      20     45     45
WEATHER COV.....                     S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   TSTM   TSTM   TSTM
TEMP............59     64     76     86     92     96
RH..............57     54     40     27     24     20
20 FT WIND......SE 1   SE 1   SE 4   SE 5   W 6    W 6
   MAX GUST.....5      5      5      15     15     15
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0

$$
FORECASTER...WOLFE
REQUESTED BY...GREG WAGENBLAST
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110906.FISHE.01/PQR