FNUS76 KPQR 070746
FWSPQR

SPOT FORECAST FOR SUBSTITUTE...USFS WNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1246 AM PDT WED SEP 7 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1721 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT THURSDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FIRE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OREGON WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE FIRE TODAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
AND EAST WIND FOR ALL CASCADE ZONES. THE THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD
MOVE WEST OF THE FIRE TONIGHT CAUSING A RENEWAL OF LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW. THE SECOND ISSUE CONCERNS THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING COVERAGE AND
TIMING BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION THE THREAT ACROSS
THE FIRE AREA THURSDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...FOR A COMBINATION OF DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING.


.TODAY...

MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-81.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 2 TO 6 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY
                    1100...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
                    1300.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.


TIME (PDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........0      0      0      10     20     20
TEMP............54     59     70     78     79     77
RH..............53     47     31     21     19     21
20 FT WIND......NE 4   NE 4   SE 3   SE 5   SE 3   SE 1
   MAX GUST.....8      7      6      8      6

.TONIGHT...

MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-57.
MAX HUMIDITY........31-39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST 2 TO 6 MPH.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.

TIME (PDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........25     15     10     0      0      0
TEMP............73     61     58     57     57     56
RH..............27     31     31     31     31     33
20 FT WIND......SE 1   VRB 1  E 2    E 4    E 4    E 4
   MAX GUST.....                     8      8      8

.THURSDAY...

MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE 2 TO 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTH TO
                    NORTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH AFTER 1300. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY WITH
                    A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................NEAR ZERO.

$$
FORECASTER...COLLINS
REQUESTED BY...JEANETTE FREEMAN
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110906.SUBST.01/PQR