FNUS73 KAPX 071115 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BRITTLE RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 715 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WILL START OUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER. OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ROAMING IN OVER THE BURN SITE A VERY SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ESPECIALLY WITH A NORTHEAST WIND BLOWING ACROSS THE AU SABLE. THE NORTHEAST WIND WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE UNDER CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. TOMORROW THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...REACHING 25 MPH AT TIMES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST AND PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........65 AT IGNITION...MAX 71. RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 17 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (700). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........32 32 32 32 38 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............65 67 68 69 69 RH..............52 47 45 44 44 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 9 9 9 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......700 600 600 600 600 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 48. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1800 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............67 65 62 59 57 55 54 54 54 53 53 52 RH..............49 52 60 67 72 77 83 83 86 89 86 89 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE N N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 10 10 15 10 10 10 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......500 400 200 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 73. RH..................MIN 49 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 24 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-2800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(700). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........38 47 47 47 48 48 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............51 52 61 69 72 72 RH..............93 93 72 57 49 49 20 FT WIND......N 7 N 7 NE 11 NE 11 NE 9 NE 8 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 25 25 20 20 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......0 0 400 700 600 600 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS. .SUNDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...JOE ALYEA TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110907.BRITT.04/APX