FNUS76 KMFR 080117
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE BUTTE FIRE...USFS RSF IMT3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
617 PM PDT WED SEP 7 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1723 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT TONIGHT FOR HAINES 6
OVER THE WILDFIRE...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR LIGHTNING WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE...

.DISCUSSION...
HAINES 6 CONDITIONS WILL RELENT LATE THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE 48 TO 58 PERCENT IN THE MORNING. ON
THURSDAY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA AND THERE
WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TOMORROW NIGHT BUT IS LIKELY
TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LESS RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY.


.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-27 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0-5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE 0-3 MPH LATE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
                    WEST-NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING 3000 FT AGL
                    LATE MORNING...INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL
                    DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................6.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH MORNING BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.


.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-60 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....BECOMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHEAST 1-3 MPH...THEN
                    EAST 2-5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......FALLING TO 1000 FEET OR LESS AGL LATE EVENING
                    AND THEN TO 500 FT AGL OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 5-15 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................6 IN THE EVENING FALLING TO 1.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST-NORTHEAST 5-15 MPH.


$$
FORECASTER...LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110907.LITTL.02/MFR