FNUS73 KAPX 081110 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR BRITTLE RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 710 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WORKING INTO INDIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL SPREAD PERIODIC HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD OVER THE BURN SITE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES...BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE STOUT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY THE GUSTS...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED SOME. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 73. RH..................57 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 23 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 0-1900 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (500). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........42 42 48 48 48 55 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... RN RN RN RN TEMP............68 70 72 72 72 71 RH..............57 51 46 46 46 47 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..10 9 9 8 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 4 SMOKE DISP......500 400 400 400 400 400 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 57. RH..................MAX 83 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 7 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1400 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........55 55 73 73 73 73 73 73 70 70 70 70 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RN RN TEMP............69 67 64 63 61 60 60 59 58 58 58 58 RH..............53 56 65 67 75 78 78 80 83 83 80 80 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......300 300 200 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 77. RH..................MIN 47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900-3100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(500). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........70 52 52 52 40 40 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............58 59 65 73 77 77 RH..............80 83 73 57 47 47 20 FT WIND......N 4 N 4 NE 5 NE 6 NE 6 E 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......0 0 300 500 300 200 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS. .SUNDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS. .MONDAY... MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...JOE ALYEA TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110908.BRITT.03/APX