FNUS73 KDLH 111114 FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR PAGAMI CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 614 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1900 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S BY NOON. NORTH WINDS WINDS WILL TURN TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...IN THE 1600 TO 1800 TIME FRAME...AS WELL AS A FEW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS OVER THE FIRE WILL BE FAST MOVING AND THEREFORE LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO A TENTH OR TWO. GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88. MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 2 TO 5 MPH EARLY...BECOMING WEST 4 TO 8 MPH...THEN NORTHWEST 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9150 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1200) INCREASING TO GOOD (43900) LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (177600) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (173100) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............57 65 80 85 85 84 RH..............69 50 30 29 24 27 20 FT WIND DIR..SW W W W NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..2 5 7 10 12 10 20 FT WIND GUST.5 7 13 18 20 18 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58. MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH...BECOMING EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH LATE MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTHEAST LATE. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (52900) DECREASING TO POOR (1900) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM TEMP............77 70 64 60 58 54 RH..............33 48 59 70 77 80 20 FT WIND DIR..N N NE E E SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 3 3 2 3 5 20 FT WIND GUST.7 5 5 8 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-83. MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH EARLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH ABRUPTLY OUT OF NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1550 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1200 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 25 TO 30 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11200) INCREASING TO GOOD (32350). TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM TEMP............58 64 74 78 83 82 69 RH..............70 62 50 45 38 42 52 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S SW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 8 10 12 14 12 14 20 FT WIND GUST.8 14 16 20 21 20 23 $$ FORECASTER...AMANDA REQUESTED BY...DOUG MIEDTKE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110910.PAGAM.03/DLH