FNUS75 KGJT 102215
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAULS CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
415 PM MDT SAT SEP 10 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR WEST IS CAUSING BURN SITE TO BE IN AN AREA FOR GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WAVES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND LOW
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY OVER
THE BURN SITE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW THOUGH STORMS WILL WEAKEN
AND BECOME VERY ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH
THE STORMS HAS BEEN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
                    NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD BY 1PM.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9700 BY 1PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...HON SCHLAPFER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110910.SAULS.01/GJT