FNUS75 KBOU 111205 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SOAPSTONE CANYON RX...NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 605 AM MDT SUN SEP 11 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREATE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS LIMIT VENTILATION TO A LEVEL OF GOOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN TODAY...HOWEVER WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...A FEW COULD DRIFT EAST OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND TOWARD THE BURN AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH. A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO MONDAY WILL CREATE BREEZY WEST WINDS TONIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...THEN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER AS A COUPLE COLD FRONTS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....75. MIN HUMIDITY........23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 11000-12000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200. MIN TEMPERATURE.....50. MAX HUMIDITY........78%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 11-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2000. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74. MIN HUMIDITY........31%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 14-24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24-32 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 11600 FT AGL AFTER 1500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1800. COOLER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SOAPSTONECANONYRX. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/11-05 0 0 0 46 73 W 9 9 3 1 S 7 108 W 9 888 P 09/11-06 0 0 0 45 71 W10 16 3 1 S 7 95 W12 910 P 09/11-07 0 0 0 50 73 W12 17 3 1 S 7 156 W12 1704 P 09/11-08 3 0 0 57 59 W13 18 3 1 S 7 216 W13 2498 P 09/11-09 3 0 0 66 42 W13 20 3 1 S 8 276 W14 3292 P 09/11-10 3 0 0 70 34 W12 18 3 1 SW 8 3490 W12 20063 P 09/11-11 3 0 0 71 31 W10 16 3 1 SW 9 6703 W 9 36835 P 09/11-12 27 10 1 72 28 NW 9 14 3 1 SW 9 9917 W 6 53606 F 09/11-13 27 10 1 73 25 NW 8 8 3 1 SW 9 10735 W 6 58867 F 09/11-14 27 10 1 74 24 W 7 7 3 1 W 9 11554 W 7 64128 G 09/11-15 27 10 1 75 23 W 6 6 3 1 W 8 12372 W 7 69389 G 09/11-16 27 10 1 75 26 W 6 6 3 1 W 7 12032 W 7 66374 G 09/11-17 27 10 1 75 26 W 6 6 3 1 W 6 11691 W 6 63360 G 09/11-18 42 10 1 74 28 W 6 6 3 1 W 5 11350 W 6 60345 G 09/11-19 42 10 1 70 33 W 6 6 3 1 W 6 7624 W 7 40689 F 09/11-20 42 10 1 63 44 W 7 7 3 1 W 7 3897 W 8 21034 P 09/11-21 42 10 1 59 51 W 8 8 3 1 SW 9 170 W 9 1378 P 09/11-22 42 0 0 57 55 W 9 14 3 1 SW13 170 W12 1663 P 09/11-23 42 0 0 56 57 W12 16 3 1 SW16 169 W14 1947 P 09/12-00 23 0 0 55 59 W13 20 3 1 SW20 169 W15 2232 P 09/12-01 23 0 0 53 61 W15 22 3 1 SW20 168 W17 2491 P 09/12-02 23 0 0 53 61 W16 24 3 1 SW20 167 W18 2750 P 09/12-03 23 0 0 52 64 W17 26 3 1 SW18 167 W21 3009 P 09/12-04 23 0 0 52 66 W17 26 3 1 SW18 175 W21 3148 P 09/12-05 23 0 0 51 70 W17 25 3 1 SW18 183 W21 3286 P 09/12-06 27 0 0 50 74 W16 23 3 1 SW18 180 W21 3176 P 09/12-07 27 0 0 50 78 W18 26 3 1 SW18 685 W25 19427 P 09/12-08 27 0 0 54 68 W21 29 3 1 SW17 1189 W30 35677 P 09/12-09 27 0 0 61 54 W22 31 3 1 SW17 1693 W36 51927 F 09/12-10 27 0 0 65 44 W21 30 3 1 W16 3748 NW31 82332 G 09/12-11 27 0 0 68 37 NW20 26 3 1 W15 5802 NW25 112737 V 09/12-12 54 20 0 70 33 NW17 24 3 1 W14 7857 NW21 143142 V 09/12-13 54 20 0 71 32 NW16 23 3 1 W13 9137 NW20 151380 E 09/12-14 54 20 0 73 31 NW16 22 3 1 W13 10417 NW18 159618 E 09/12-15 54 20 0 73 32 NW15 21 3 1 W13 11698 NW16 167856 E 09/12-16 54 20 0 74 32 NW13 18 3 1 W13 11650 NW16 162195 E 09/12-17 54 20 0 74 32 NW12 12 3 1 W14 11601 NW15 156534 E 09/12-18 54 20 0 72 33 NW 9 9 3 1 W14 11553 NW15 150873 E 09/12-19 54 20 0 68 37 NW 8 8 3 1 W15 7762 NW13 101050 V 09/12-20 54 20 0 61 48 NW 8 8 3 1 W16 3970 NW12 51227 F 09/12-21 54 20 0 57 54 NW 8 8 3 1 W15 178 NW 9 1403 P 09/12-22 54 0 0 55 60 NW 8 8 3 1 W14 168 NW 9 1311 P 09/12-23 54 0 0 53 65 NW 8 8 3 1 W13 158 NW 9 1219 P 09/13-00 35 0 0 52 69 NW 8 8 3 1 W12 149 NW 9 1127 P 09/13-01 35 0 0 51 73 NW 9 9 3 1 W13 148 NW 9 1219 P 09/13-02 35 0 0 49 78 NW 9 9 3 1 SW15 147 NW10 1311 P 09/13-03 35 0 0 49 76 NW10 10 3 1 SW17 146 NW12 1403 P 09/13-04 35 0 0 49 76 NW10 10 3 1 SW18 140 NW10 1294 P 09/13-05 35 0 0 48 79 NW 9 9 3 1 SW20 133 NW10 1184 P 09/13-06 41 13 3 47 81 NW 9 9 3 1 SW20 127 W 9 1075 P 09/13-07 41 13 3 47 83 W 9 9 3 1 W20 157 W10 1413 P 09/13-08 41 13 3 50 74 W 9 9 3 1 W18 186 W10 1751 P 09/13-09 41 13 3 55 63 W 9 9 3 1 W17 216 W12 2088 P 09/13-10 41 13 3 58 56 W 8 8 3 1 W16 236 W10 2051 P 09/13-11 41 13 3 60 51 W 8 8 3 1 W15 257 W 9 2013 P 09/13-12 58 5 1 61 48 W 7 7 3 1 W14 277 W 8 1976 P 09/13-13 58 5 1 63 43 W 7 7 3 1 W14 280 W 8 2087 P 09/13-14 58 5 1 64 39 W 8 8 3 1 W14 282 W 9 2199 P 09/13-15 58 5 1 64 38 W 8 8 3 1 W14 284 W 9 2311 P 09/13-16 58 5 1 64 40 W 7 7 3 1 W13 274 W 8 1948 P 09/13-17 58 5 1 64 44 W 5 5 3 1 W12 264 W 7 1584 P 09/13-18 51 16 3 63 49 W 3 3 3 3 W12 254 W 6 1221 P 09/13-19 51 16 3 60 55 W 3 3 3 3 W10 209 W 6 994 P 09/13-20 51 16 3 55 65 W 3 3 3 3 W10 165 W 6 766 P 09/13-21 51 16 3 53 70 W 3 3 3 3 W10 120 W 5 538 P 09/13-22 51 16 3 51 74 W 3 3 3 3 W 9 117 W 6 558 P 09/13-23 51 16 3 50 75 W 5 5 3 3 W 9 114 W 6 578 P 09/14-00 38 15 3 49 77 W 5 5 3 3 W 9 111 W 6 598 P 09/14-01 38 15 3 48 79 W 5 5 3 3 W 9 110 W 7 635 P 09/14-02 38 15 3 47 83 W 6 6 3 3 W 8 109 W 7 672 P 09/14-03 38 15 3 47 82 W 6 6 3 3 W 8 107 W 8 710 P 09/14-04 38 15 3 47 82 W 7 7 3 3 W 8 106 W 8 744 P 09/14-05 38 15 3 46 84 W 8 8 3 3 W 8 105 W 8 778 P 09/14-06 49 29 8 46 85 NW 8 8 3 4 W 9 103 NW 9 812 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...BRIAN FAITH REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110911.SOAPS.01/BOU