FNUS73 KDLH 121132 CCA FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR PAGAMI CREEK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 628 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1925 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .UPDATED...ADDED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND HAINES INDEX VALUES TODAY. .DISCUSSION... INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURE AND DECREASED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE AND OVERNIGHT FERNBERG OBSERVATIONS WARMER AND DRIER THAN EXPECTED. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SITE TOMORROW. A TRANSITION FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SITE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84. MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 4900 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH BECOMING WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10200) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (138600). PRECIPITATION.......SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HAINES INDEX........5 DECREASING TO 3 IN THE EARLY EVENING. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............60 68 77 81 83 75 RH..............53 48 37 35 39 47 20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S SW W NW 20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 11 14 14 16 20 FT WIND GUST.15 17 21 24 28 30 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48. MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE EVENING...DECREASING AROUND 8 MPH LATE. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN DECREASING TO 2900 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (77700) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (91900) LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (77100) AFTER MIDNIGHT DECREASING TO GOOD (45600) LATE. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM TEMP............64 57 52 49 48 45 RH..............57 70 80 80 80 83 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..16 14 14 12 10 6 20 FT WIND GUST.30 25 23 20 15 11 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 40 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62. MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 11 TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 7400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 6300 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (28400) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (163000). HAINES INDEX........4 INCREASING TO 5 IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............45 51 55 59 61 59 RH..............80 66 50 39 36 47 20 FT WIND DIR..NW W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..5 7 8 12 14 11 20 FT WIND GUST.9 11 14 19 22 17 $$ FORECASTER...AMANDA REQUESTED BY...BRIAN JENKINS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110911.PAGAM.02/DLH