FNUS75 KGJT 112246
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAULS CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 PM MDT SUN SEP 11 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE ACTIVE OVER
EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA/WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHICH MAY AFFECT THE
FIRE SITE DURING NEAR MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IF IT CAN
HOLD TOGETHER AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS. OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. INVERSIONS SHOULD SET UP AFTER SUNSET AS
WELL RESULTING IN POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL...THIS COULD BE OFFSET
TEMPORARILY HOWEVER BY PASSING SHOWERS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%)...WITH ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
                    NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........NEAR 80%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH EARLY
                    EVENING...BECOMING MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN TO
                    DOWNSLOPE AT 3 TO 8 MPH AFTER SUNSET.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN DROPPING
                    TO POOR AFTER SUNSET. MAY INCREASE IN RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL DECREASING TO LESS THAN 2000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTER SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST  5 TO 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 70 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE AT 3 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    5 TO 15 MPH BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD BY EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 3000 FT AGL THROUGH MID MORNING
                    INCREASING TO 9100 FT AGL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...HON SCHLAPFER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110911.SAULS.02/GJT