FNUS76 KLOX 120138
FWSLOX

SPOT FORECAST FOR FRAISER 1...LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
637 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1713 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LINGER OVER
THE BURN AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. OUTSIDE
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
LESS THAN 10 MPH...EXCEPT HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE RIDGETOPS. WITH MORE
OF AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING TODAY...HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO TURN MUCH DRIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM READINGS
AROUND 16 TO 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-76 LOW ELEVATIONS...67-72 HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......EAST 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
 RIDGETOP...........EAST TO SOUTHEAST 6-12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL EARLY INCREASING TO
                    6000-9000 FT AGL BY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10-15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-58.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......VARIABLE 2-5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST TO NORTH 4-8 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
 RIDGETOP...........VARIABLE 2-5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    NORTH 6-12 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......FALLING TO NEAR 3000 FT AGL IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SIRARD
REQUESTED BY...JOHN ABELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110911.FRAIS.01/LOX