FNUS75 KBOU 122237 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE JAY...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 437 PM MDT MON SEP 12 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL SEE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAT WILL FUEL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THIS IS DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....48. MAX HUMIDITY........62%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. LAL.................3 UNTIL 2200...LAL 2 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN LAL 1. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....63. MIN HUMIDITY........34%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 6400-7400 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN 3. .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 2400...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....44. MAX HUMIDITY........78%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN WEST 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. LAL.................3 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN 2. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....55. MIN HUMIDITY........67%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6-7 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN EAST 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST AROUND 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 1800-2800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. LAL.................1 UNTIL NOON...THEN LAL 3. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BLUEJAY. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 09/12-16 64 25 5 68 31 NW10 16 2 4 W 8 9496 W 8 63539 G 09/12-17 64 25 5 67 33 W12 17 3 4 SW 9 9131 SW 7 55820 F 09/12-18 59 25 5 67 33 W12 18 3 4 SW 9 8765 SW 6 48102 F 09/12-19 59 25 5 64 37 W12 20 3 4 SW10 6274 SW 8 35906 P 09/12-20 59 25 5 61 42 W12 20 3 4 SW12 3784 W 9 23710 P 09/12-21 59 25 5 59 45 W12 18 3 4 SW13 1293 W10 11514 P 09/12-22 59 10 2 57 48 W10 16 3 2 SW13 1002 W10 8938 P 09/12-23 59 10 2 56 51 W 9 15 3 2 SW13 712 W10 6361 P 09/13-00 41 4 1 54 56 W 8 13 3 1 S13 421 W10 3784 P 09/13-01 41 4 1 52 58 W 8 14 3 1 SW15 365 W10 3230 P 09/13-02 41 4 1 51 60 W 9 14 2 1 SW17 309 W10 2675 P 09/13-03 41 4 1 50 61 W 9 15 2 1 W20 253 W 9 2121 P 09/13-04 41 4 1 49 61 W 8 13 2 1 W21 253 W 9 1920 P 09/13-05 41 4 1 49 62 W 7 7 3 1 W21 253 W 8 1718 P 09/13-06 55 11 2 49 62 W 6 6 3 1 W21 253 W 7 1517 P 09/13-07 55 11 2 50 57 W 6 6 3 1 W20 978 W 9 11461 P 09/13-08 55 11 2 52 52 W 7 7 3 1 W17 1703 W13 21404 P 09/13-09 55 11 2 55 47 W 7 7 3 1 W16 2428 W15 31348 P 09/13-10 55 11 2 58 44 W 6 6 3 1 W14 3894 W13 37961 P 09/13-11 55 11 2 59 44 W 6 6 3 1 W14 5360 W10 44573 F 09/13-12 55 30 9 61 43 NW 5 5 3 4 W13 6826 W 8 51185 F 09/13-13 55 30 9 61 40 NW 6 6 3 4 W14 7001 W 8 51807 F 09/13-14 55 30 9 62 36 W 7 7 3 4 SW16 7176 W 8 52428 F 09/13-15 55 30 9 62 34 W 7 7 3 4 SW17 7350 W 8 53050 F 09/13-16 55 30 9 62 37 NW 6 6 3 4 SW17 6797 W 8 48855 F 09/13-17 55 30 9 61 43 NW 3 3 3 4 SW17 6244 W 8 44660 F 09/13-18 39 27 7 61 47 NW 2 2 3 4 SW17 5690 W 8 40466 F 09/13-19 39 27 7 58 54 NW 2 2 3 4 SW17 3915 W 7 27380 P 09/13-20 39 27 7 55 59 NW 2 2 3 4 W16 2139 W 6 14293 P 09/13-21 39 27 7 53 62 W 3 3 3 4 W16 363 W 3 1207 P 09/13-22 39 27 7 51 68 W 3 3 3 4 W17 265 W 3 911 P 09/13-23 39 27 7 50 70 W 5 5 3 4 SW18 238 W 5 881 P 09/14-00 61 22 4 49 71 W 5 5 3 1 SW20 212 W 5 851 P 09/14-01 61 22 4 48 71 W 5 5 3 1 SW20 195 W 5 818 P 09/14-02 61 22 4 47 71 W 6 6 3 1 SW20 177 W 5 785 P 09/14-03 61 22 4 46 71 W 6 6 3 1 SW18 160 W 6 752 P 09/14-04 61 22 4 45 73 W 6 6 3 1 SW17 172 W 6 862 P 09/14-05 61 22 4 44 76 W 7 7 2 1 W16 184 W 6 971 P 09/14-06 71 33 12 44 78 NW 7 7 2 1 W15 196 NW 7 1080 P 09/14-07 71 33 12 45 77 NW 7 7 2 1 W13 404 NW 6 1767 P 09/14-08 71 33 12 47 75 N 6 6 3 1 W 9 612 NW 5 2454 P 09/14-09 71 33 12 48 72 NE 7 7 3 1 W 8 819 N 5 3141 P 09/14-10 71 33 12 50 70 NE 8 14 3 1 W 6 1201 N 6 6269 P 09/14-11 71 33 12 52 68 NE10 17 2 1 W 6 1583 NE 7 9397 P 09/14-12 83 51 27 53 67 E13 20 2 4 NW 6 1964 E 7 12525 P 09/14-13 83 51 27 54 68 E13 20 2 4 W 7 1967 E 7 12421 P 09/14-14 83 51 27 54 69 E12 20 2 4 W 9 1970 E 7 12318 P 09/14-15 83 51 27 54 70 E12 18 2 4 W10 1973 E 7 12214 P 09/14-16 83 51 27 53 73 E12 17 2 4 W12 2483 E 8 18951 P 09/14-17 83 51 27 52 76 E10 17 2 4 W10 2993 E 9 25689 P 09/14-18 90 72 56 50 80 E10 16 2 3 W10 3503 NE10 32426 P 09/14-19 90 72 56 50 79 E 9 15 2 3 W12 3156 E 9 26491 P 09/14-20 90 72 56 49 85 E 8 14 2 3 W13 2810 E 8 20556 P 09/14-21 90 72 56 47 90 E 8 8 2 3 W14 2463 E 7 14621 P 09/14-22 90 72 56 46 94 E 7 7 2 3 W14 2345 E 8 15645 P 09/14-23 90 72 56 45 96 SE 7 7 2 3 W14 2227 SE 9 16670 P 09/15-00 84 64 44 44 99 SE 7 7 2 1 W14 2110 SE 9 17694 P 09/15-01 84 64 44 43 100 SE 6 6 2 1 NW13 1932 SE 9 15972 P 09/15-02 84 64 44 42 100 SE 6 6 2 1 NW13 1754 S 9 14251 P 09/15-03 84 64 44 41 100 S 5 5 2 1 NW12 1576 S 9 12529 P 09/15-04 84 64 44 41 100 S 3 3 2 1 NW13 1472 S 8 10589 P 09/15-05 84 64 44 40 100 S 3 3 2 1 NW13 1368 SW 7 8649 P 09/15-06 85 47 23 40 100 S 2 2 2 1 N13 1264 SW 6 6709 P 09/15-07 85 47 23 40 100 S 2 2 2 1 N12 1583 SW 6 7061 P 09/15-08 85 47 23 43 88 SE 2 2 2 1 N 9 1903 SW 5 7413 P 09/15-09 85 47 23 46 80 SE 2 2 2 1 N 7 2223 SW 3 7766 P 09/15-10 85 47 23 48 76 SE 2 2 2 1 N 6 2352 SW 5 8446 P 09/15-11 85 47 23 48 76 E 2 2 2 1 N 5 2482 SW 5 9126 P 09/15-12 72 39 17 49 76 E 2 2 2 1 N 5 2611 SW 5 9806 P 09/15-13 72 39 17 51 72 E 2 2 2 1 NW 5 2706 SW 5 9431 P 09/15-14 72 39 17 51 72 SE 2 2 2 1 NW 7 2801 SW 3 9055 P 09/15-15 72 39 17 51 70 SE 2 2 2 1 NW 8 2896 SW 3 8679 P 09/15-16 72 39 17 51 72 S 2 2 2 1 NW 9 2745 SW 3 8390 P 09/15-17 72 39 17 50 72 S 2 2 2 1 NW10 2593 SW 3 8102 P 09/15-18 58 24 5 50 72 SW 2 2 2 1 NW13 2441 SW 3 7813 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FORT COLLINS DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110912.BLUEJ.01/BOU