FNUS73 KDLH 121657 FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR PAGAMI CREEK...USDA-FS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1157 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1117 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODIC GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORNING SOUNDING FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS SHOWS 46 MPH WINDS AT 1900 FT AGL. A DEEP...WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD EASILY TRANSPORT THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE IS CURRENTLY CUTTING THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ABOUT TO PUSH INTO KOOCHICHING COUNTY. THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN RATHER FAST...HOWEVER THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION SHOULD SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY. SO...AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE THE WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AT THE BURN SITE SHOULD OCCUR SOME TIME AROUND 3-4 PM CDT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE W/NW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT...BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN FROM THE NW TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL BE MUCH COOLER TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THE DRY AIR BEHIND TO FRONT WILL ALLOW THE RH VALUES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30 TO LOWER 40 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-87. MIN HUMIDITY........30-33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 33 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS 27 TO 33 MPH IN THE MID AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 20 TO 24 MPH WITH GUSTS 34 TO 38 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH BECOMING WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10200) IN THE LATE MORNING INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (138300) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM TEMP............81 83 84 85 80 76 73 67 RH..............36 34 31 37 41 45 54 63 20 FT WIND DIR..SW S SW SW W W NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..15 18 19 16 18 21 24 19 20 FT WIND GUST.24 26 29 28 30 32 30 27 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45. MAX HUMIDITY........96-100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 28 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3450 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN DECREASING TO 2800 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (78300) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (92200) LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (75100) AFTER MIDNIGHT DECREASING TO GOOD (43500) LATE. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM TEMP............62 54 50 48 47 45 RH..............73 86 87 83 79 82 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW W 20 FT WIND SPD..15 16 15 11 9 6 20 FT WIND GUST.30 32 25 20 15 8 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 40 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62. MIN HUMIDITY........38-41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 13 TO 16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 7400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 6300 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (27400) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (163800). TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............43 51 57 60 60 58 RH..............86 64 50 44 42 44 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 8 11 14 14 20 FT WIND GUST.5 9 14 18 23 23 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN REQUESTED BY...BRIAN JENKINS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110912.PAGAM.01/DLH