FNUS75 KGJT 122102
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR DRY PARK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
302 PM MDT MON SEP 12 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1510 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WEATHER WISE AS A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW WILL ACT TO TRIGGER AND ENHANCE CONVECTION. HOWEVER THESE WAVES
ARE ILL DEFINED AND HARD TO TIME. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5000-29500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-9800 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8400 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE CHAMBERLAIN
REQUESTED BY...LUKE ODOM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110912.DRYPA.01/GJT