FNUS76 KLOX 130110
FWSLOX

SPOT FORECAST FOR HURRICANE COMPLEX...USFS LPF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
610 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1702 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...IF FIRE BECOMES PLUME DOMINATED THIS EVENING...PYROCUMULUS
COULD DEVELOP CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR FIRE CREWS...

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF POINT
CONCEPTION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONCERN IS
PLACED WITH THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT HEAT FROM THE FIRE COULD CREATE A PLUME DOMINATED COLUMN AND
PYROCUMULUS COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN
TO STABILIZE ON TUESDAY AND A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS. AT THE CURRENT TIME...NO CHANCES OF
WETTING RAINS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ESTABLISHES
ALOFT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
    EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL 2000 HOURS...
    THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST 5 TO 10 MPH
    WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
    GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......FALLING TO 500 FT AGL OR LESS BY 2100 HOURS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH
    UNTIL 1000 HOURS...THEN BECOMING UPSLOPE/
                    UPVALLEY 3 TO 8 MPH THROUGH 1300 HOURS.
    BETWEEN 1300 AND 1400 HOURS...WINDS BECOMING
    SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
    15 MPH.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
    GUSTS TO 15 MPH UNTIL 1400 HOURS...THEN
    BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL OR LESS UNTIL 1100 HOURS...THEN
    INCREASING TO 11500 FT ASL BY 1400 HOURS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 1300 HOURS...THEN
    BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 2000 HOURS...
    THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST 5 TO 10 MPH
    WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 2000
    HOURS...THEN BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO
    10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT ASL FALLING TO 500 FT AGL OR LESS
                    BY 2100 HOURS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 2000 HOURS...
    BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.


FORECASTER...HALL
REQUESTED BY...BRENDAN RIPLEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110912.HURRI.01/LOX

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