FNUS75 KCYS 122215
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR MORGAN CREEK RX BURN...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
415 PM MDT MON SEP 12 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE BURN SITE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE WEATHER OVER THE BURN SITE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TUESDAY. THAT FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BURN SITE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE BURN SITE EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTS UP
                    TO 18 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF
                    WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD BECOMING POOR BY MIDNIGHT (2100-44100 KNOT-
                    FT).

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH BY LATE
                    MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON
                    (40000-95100 KNOT-FT).


.OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.  LOWS FROM 40 TO 45
WITH MAXIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 75 PERCENT. HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AROUND 60.

$$
FORECASTER...WEILAND
REQUESTED BY...C  OTTO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110913.MORGA.01/CYS