FNUS75 KCYS 131649
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR MORGAN CREEK RX...BLM RAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1049 AM MDT TUE SEP 13 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE AT THE BURN SITE. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 2 PM. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT GREAT...BUT IF CAUGHT UNDERNEATH A CELL...MAY BE ABLE TO
GET SOME WETTING RAIN. STILL THINK THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL COME OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KICK IN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS FLOW WILL TURN DRAINAGE AND
LIGHT JUST BEFORE SUNSET. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE DECENT
OVERNIGHT AROUND 75 PERCENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
BURN SITE BY EARLY TO MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY...TURNING THE WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY AND BREEZIER WITH ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64 TO 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 TO 40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
CWR.................20 PERCENT AFTER 1400.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (38000-81800 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    CLOUDY (85-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40 TO 45.
MAX HUMIDITY........75 TO 80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    LIGHT DRAINAGE DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY FLOW.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST/SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD DECREASING TO POOR (1300-32800 KNOT-FT).

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 TO 50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTHEAST
                    AT 15 TO 25 MPH.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR BECOMING GOOD (12200-41200 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...HAHN
REQUESTED BY...C  OTTO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110913.MORGA.02/CYS