FNUS75 KGJT 131456
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAUL S CREEK RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
856 AM MDT TUE SEP 13 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0845 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WEATHER WISE AS A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIALLY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
EXPANDING AND APPROACHING THE BURN SITE BY AROUND 1400. WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE INCREASED STORM COVERAGE AS A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS BECOMING WEST 5-10 BY 1100. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8600-10700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8600 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 11 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
                    NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-80%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR 2100.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4600-7100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE CHAMBERLAIN
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT DEHNSICH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110913.SAULS.01/GJT