FNUS72 KJAX 131856
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR TRIPPING EAGLE FIRE...FFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1442 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING...THOUGH WE ANTICIPATE AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND TO THE FIRE SITE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 8 PM. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

LATE IN THE WEEK A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND IN
ADDITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

MIN RH'S WILL FALL TO BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR LONG DURATIONS
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NO RED FLAGS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW ERC VALUES. RH'S WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). AREAS SMOKE
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1500 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 13 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 3
                    MPH LATE IN THE NIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........32     22     20     15     15     12
WEATHER COV.....AREAS
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE  NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............86     78     74     72     70     68
RH..............40     63     73     79     84     90
20 FT WIND......E 7    E 8    SE 6   SE 3   S 3    S 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     10     5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....4800   1500   1500   900    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 9   E 13   E 13   SE 9   SE 5   SE 5
LVORI...........6      6      6      6      6      6
DISPERSION INDX.69     24     24     4      2      2
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      10     10     10     0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 7900 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 3 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AROUND 14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....56.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........14     18     20     20     27     27
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............67     67     80     89     92     90
RH..............94     95     63     45     37     38
20 FT WIND......S 1    SE 0   E 2    E 6    E 8    E 10
20 FT WIND GUST.              5             10
MIX HGT (FT)....800    1400   1400   4700   7900   7900
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 3   SE 3   SE 3   E 7    NE 10  NE 10
DISPERSION INDX.2      2      2      38     85     52
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

$$
FORECASTER...SHASHY
REQUESTED BY...PAT DEREN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110913.TRIPP.01/JAX